Automated industrial work order prioritization
Active learning
Natural language processing
Uncertainty quantification
Hierarchical modeling
The national electrical grid operator in New Zealand approached me to investigate the possibility for automatically prioritising incoming maintenance work orders from external service providers, for equipment across the national grid.
This research project turned into deployed product and a conference paper. The software runs daily, reading information from the Maximo maintenance database, running the calculations, and feeding priorities back into the database.
The web application allows Transpower staff to update training data for new equipment, re-train, and investigate model accuracy without my input. This is crucial for the system to be sustainable - new types of equipment can be introduced into the grid without requiring my ongoing input.
This system was implemented in 2018, is still in use, has prioritized tens of millions of dollars in maintenance expenditure, and annual reviews have demonstrated significantly positive all-up ROI.
For each work order (100,000+) the system runs a processing pipeline estimating probability of loss and loss severity over 5 categories: service performance, financial cost, public safety, worker safety, and environmental impact. The system then estimates cost to remediate. This information is turned into a final priority.
Developing equipment and defect ontologies was key to this project. The existing equipment database was at the wrong granularity - units of equipment that fail often had a one-many relationship with parts in the equipment database. Unsupervised approaches were heavily used to explore the data and iteratively build the ontologies.
Another key piece of the project was capturing organization-wide experiential knowledge. We developed a web app for data entry along with an active learning approach to make the best use of the available input. Among other outputs, this was used to aggregate subjective evaluations of the likelihood of failure for an asset/defect combination into a quantitative estimate.
The processing pipeline involves a hierarchical system of Bayesian generalized linear models, quantifying uncertainty at each step, to generate an equipment and fault ontology node. Subsequent modules then estimate the likelihood and consequence of loss, repair cost, and calculate the final priority score.